Attie Bosman

Businesses: How to Survive the Coronavirus Panic

No one knows for certain just how serious the eventual economic fallout from the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic will be, but at the very least businesses will face their most challenging times since 2008. Quite possibly it will be a lot worse.

For the moment you will want to concentrate on business survival, to which end we share some practical ideas on how you can respond to the crisis.

Businesses that react calmly and sensibly in this time of panic won’t just maximise their chances of survival; they could even end up strengthening their position in readiness for the inevitable recovery and upturn…

Never let a good crisis go to waste” (Winston Churchill)

Globally, the COVID-19 coronavirus has spread panic amongst societies and markets. Businesses are suffering their most challenging times since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

This is the time for urgently reviewing how events have affected your business and how you can respond to the seeming chaos.

Cash is king

When faced with great uncertainty, conserve cash and shore up all your credit lines. This will give you greater flexibility when strategizing a response to the coronavirus. You may, for example, be able to buy a crucial stock item for a discount from one of your suppliers, thus ensuring that you can continue operating. Apart from strengthening your position with your competitors, this could help the supplier to remain in business – relationships are important, and this supplier will be grateful to you.

Trim costs wherever you can – some of this is being done for you as many companies are cancelling travel, resulting in many meetings and conferences being called off. Capital expenditure is being pruned globally and there may be opportunities to delay some of your current capex.

Keep your staff healthy

Apple has already told staff to work from home to reduce the risk of catching or spreading the coronavirus. Desks are being spaced to reduce the possibility of catching the virus and meetings are being cancelled or are taking place electronically.

Make sure the risk of staff catching the virus is minimised and have a succession plan if some key members are incapacitated by the coronavirus. Take particular care of staff members who have health issues, as they could become seriously ill or die if they catch the virus. As health authorities are advising people to frequently wash their hands, ensure that you have enough hand washing dispensers.

As many of your staff will be working from home using smart phones and their own desktops, have your IT department mitigate the risks of hacking or computer viruses getting into your IT platform.

Perhaps, most importantly, communicate often with your employees and managers. Regularly follow updates from the World Health Organisation and the local Department of Health. This is a time of uncertainty, as there is no definitive knowledge on how the coronavirus will evolve and thus sharing the information you gather on the disease, will improve the health and morale of staff in your business.

The Occupational Health and Safety Act imposes obligations on employers to provide a healthy environment for their staff. Much of the above is in line with ensuring that you comply with that Act’s requirements, but you need to ensure your organisation is compliant with the legislation.

Your supply chain

This is clearly a key area and working out the risks of suppliers and contractors being unable to supply you is a key task. Some of the important areas will be changing your safety stock holdings, reviewing your contracts with stakeholders and assessing the risks and the consequences of default. This is where it really pays to have cash.

As we said above, keep in mind the long term relationships with suppliers.

You also need to review your insurance policies – will they pay out if certain scenarios unfold? Do you need to take out different policies?

Reacting, planning and preparing strategies will ensure you have the agility to ride out this crisis and may even strengthen your position with competitors.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

COVID-19 Lockdown: Relief Programs for Businesses and SMMEs

The National Lockdown, due to end on 16 April, presents businesses of all sizes with an unprecedented set of existential challenges.

Of course sooner or later this crisis will end, but for now it is a case of survival for many businesses, and particularly for those smaller enterprises forced now to close for 21 days.

Don’t despair, help is at hand! We list the various relief initiatives announced to date. The list will change, as will the details of and processes for accessing each initiative, but be aware of, and take advantage of, the assistance that is out there – or will be out there shortly.

The President, telling the nation that “We will prioritise the lives and livelihoods of our people above all else, and will use all of the measures that are within our power to protect them from the economic consequences of this pandemic”, has announced a variety of initiatives to assist SMMEs (Small, Medium and Micro-Enterprises) that will need assistance in surviving the three week lockdown and economic disruptions flowing from the COVID-19 coronavirus.

Please note these are new initiatives, so expect delays, changes to schemes, new proposals and differing interpretations.  Everyone’s patience will be tested!

Some of the announced measures discussed below still need to be enacted and may be different when they are finalized.  Expect ongoing changes and keep Googling for ongoing lists of proposed and implemented avenues of business relief.

1st: UIF Money

The UIF has an estimated surplus of R180 billion and this is the logical first port of call when looking at incentives, especially as money given by the UIF is not a loan, and thus doesn’t have to be repaid. There are two routes to access this money – using the traditional UIF method (National Disaster Benefit) or making use of the new Temporary Employer/Employee Relief Scheme (TERS) which is discussed below.

For either method, the employer must be registered with the UIF and be making monthly contributions. If you are behind on contributions, you can pay in any backlog you have.

National Disaster Benefit

  1. Temporary shut down
    If the employer temporarily shuts down the business, then the UIF will pay out R3 500 per employee per month for up to three months.

    • Requirements:
      • A letter from the employer confirming the operation is temporarily closing down due to the coronavirus
      • A copy of the employee’s ID
    • Forms to be Completed:
      • UI19 and UI12.7 (employer to complete)
      • 1 – application form
      • 8 – Confirmation of bank account
  1. Reduced work time
    The payout is the difference between what the employer pays and UIF benefits.

    • Forms to be Completed:
      • UI19 and UI2.7 (completed by Employer)
      • UI 2.1 (application)
      • UI 2.8 (bank form completed by the bank)
      • A letter from the Employer confirming Reduced Work Time is due to the coronavirus
      • Copy of ID document
  1. Quarantine and illness
    In cases where employees are put in isolation for 14 days or more.

    • Requirements:
      • Letters from the employer and employee that the person is in quarantine. No medical certificate is needed
      • If the quarantine is longer than 14 days, a certificate is required from the employee’s doctor, along with the form UI3
    • Forms to be Completed:
      • UI19 and UI2.7 (completed by Employer)
      • 2 (a portion of which is completed by the Doctor)
      • UI 2.8 (bank form completed by the bank)
      • Copy of ID document
  1. Death benefits
    If the employee dies, the UIF will pay the funds to beneficiaries.

    • Forms to be Completed:
      • UI19 and UI 53 (completed by the Employer)
      • UI 2.5 or UI2.6 (deceased application)
      • Death Certificate
      • ID of deceased and applicant
      • UI 2.8 (bank form completed by the bank)
      • Copy of ID document

You can also download the UIF’s “Easy-Aid Guide for Employers” here.

Temporary Employee/Employer Relief Scheme (TERS)

This applies to businesses who temporarily shut down – a three-month period is envisioned but this could be extended. The UIF then pays salaries to all staff, based on the current UIF pay outs – a maximum of R6 731 p.m. for staff earning R17 162 or more down to the minimum wage of R3 500.

There is quite a bit of documentation here – send an email to Covid19ters@labour.gov.za and you will get the forms to be completed and other requirements needed.

A Memorandum of Agreement is signed and the employer submits (in the required format) a spreadsheet of employee details and salary, proof of payment of the last 3 months’ salaries, bank confirmation of the applicable bank account.

You will need to open a separate bank account for this and prove each month that all staff have been paid.

There is quite a bit of work here and getting the forms accurate will prevent delays in payment.

Which of the two schemes to choose from depends on your business – there is some crossover, for example, quarantined employees can claim under the National Disaster Benefit (see Quarantine and Illness). On the face of it, TERS looks more lucrative but it is very admin intensive in setting up, and as a new scheme it may be subject to teething problems. Ask your accountant for advice in doubt.

2nd: The Department of Small Business Development (DSBD)

R500 million has been set aside to help SMMEs due to the impact of the coronavirus. The money will be in the form of loans at prime less 5%. Assistance falls into two categories:

  • Business Growth/ Resilience Facility: This applies to businesses whose products are aligned to helping to combat the pandemic. Examples are making hand sanitisers, medical protective clothing, medical supplies etc. SMME logistics companies may also apply for funding.Funding will cover bridging finance, asset finance, stock and working capital needs.
  • Debt Relief Fund: Companies will need to show how the coronavirus has impacted on their business. The relief focuses on purchase of stock and other operating needs. Funds will be released based on the company’s cash flow requirements.

The starting point is to register on the DSBD’s portal (www.smmesa.gov.za) – the registration entails staff breakdown between males and females, the number of youth employees and racial classification of staff. There is also a section on who owns the business and annual turnover. The business needs to be 100% South African owned and the work force is to be 70% local.

The DSBD is setting up an SMME database which will be used in future interventions.

Once registered follow the application process which opens on 2 April. How much each business gets is still unclear.

Call the DSBD’s hotline 0860 663 7867 or email info@dsbd.gov.za to check what kind of government support you qualify for.

3rd: Department of Trade and Industry

R3 billion assistance has been set aside with a main focus on providing funding to “vulnerable” businesses and to provide financing help to companies involved in the battle to roll back the coronavirus. It’s not that dissimilar to the DSBD’s approach but it serves all business, not just SMMEs. Of the R3 billion, R500 million will be for importing needed medical products and R700 million will be for financing equipment and working capital requirements. Guidelines as to how to apply are forthcoming.

4th: The Solidarity Fund

This has been set up with R150 million from the government (www.solidarityfund.co.za) and it is designed to help stop and detect the virus, look after the people with it, plus help those people who are vulnerable as a result of the coronavirus. Mary Oppenheimer has pledged R1 billion to this fund and Naspers has committed R500 million.

You may wish to donate to the fund or apply for help for struggling staff members.

5th: Private and Corporate Funds

The Rupert and Oppenheimer families and the Motsepe Foundation, have each pledged R1 billion. Motsepe’s money will go towards helping poor communities fight the coronavirus by supplying them with hand sanitisers etc. The Ruperts’ and Oppenheimers’ funds will be to help struggling small businesses and employees, as a result of the coronavirus. In addition, Naspers has pledged R1.5 billion (in addition to the R500 million to the Solidarity Fund) to source medical supplies and protective equipment, from China, for health care workers.  .

The Rupert funds will be disbursed by Business Partners and application forms will soon be released – although details are not yet available, the money will be a loan.

The Oppenheimer money will be paid out from the “South Africa Future Trust” through the major four banks in the form of a five-year interest free loan – for details see SAFT’s website. SMMEs will apply to their bank which will then pay salaries directly into employees’ bank accounts. No liability will be incurred by employees – the business will be liable for repayment. Speak to your bank manager for how to apply – the system begins operating on 3 April.

Details on the Motsepe and Naspers disbursements are still outstanding.

6th: SARS Relief Measures

  • The Employment Tax Incentive (ETI) has been extended to include all staff earning less than R6 500 per month from ages 18 to 65 – they will qualify for an additional R500 per month which can be claimed via the monthly PAYE return.

All staff members currently receiving ETI benefits will get an additional R500 per month.

These measures will apply for four months from April to July this year. The ETI has been paying out twice a year but this will now be monthly.

  • Tax compliant companies with turnover of less than R50 million will be able to hold back 20% of their PAYE payments and a portion of their provisional tax payments, as follows:
    • The business must be tax compliant and using eFiling.
    • PAYE returns due May 7, June 7, July 7 and August 7, you only pay 80% of your PAYE liability
    • From September 7 and for the next five PAYE returns, the 20% reduction is to be paid back in equal amounts e.g. if you received a R30 000 reduction in PAYE for the months April to July, then you will repay an additional R5 000 each month on your PAYE return.
    • Provisional Tax payments due from April 1 to September 30:
      • The first payment at 15% of the estimated tax liability
      • The second payment at 65% of estimated tax liability (i.e. 50% is due on the second payment)
      • In your top up payment you will be required to pay your full tax liability.

Note: the above applies to companies – measures for individuals will be announced later.

7th: Competition Act amendments re banks and retail tenants

The Competition Act has been amended to allow banks to work together to come up with solutions to help indebted companies and people. The major banks have announced cash flow relief measures – these will have to be repaid. Speak to your bank for more details and see a summary of bank-by-bank relief as announced to date here.

The Competition Act has also been relaxed to allow retail tenants to get together and present a unified negotiating position to landlords in the areas of evictions, rental discounts and rental “holidays”. This is already happening with “active” negotiation and demands between retail landlords and tenants.

8th: Tourism sector relief

A R200 million fund has been set up to help SMMEs in the tourism sector (Read “COVID-19 interventions for the tourism sector” here).

It applies to SMMEs with R2.5 Million or less. 70% of pay outs will be to Black owned Businesses with a bias towards rural areas.

9th: Other

The CIPC have extended the deadline for submission of the Annual Return, if you are required to submit during the lockdown process to April 30.

Government is considering suspending employers and employees UIF contributions and employer payments to the Skills Development Fund.

To date most businesses are reportedly finding that Business Interruption Insurance claims are not being considered by insurance companies.

Expect more initiatives to emerge as we move deeper into the coronavirus crisis. How much these measures will cushion the shock to the economy is unknown. They are, considering how little fiscal space there is, a creative and welcome attempt to help business and people affected by the lockdown and other restrictions. Nevertheless, the economy is virtually certain to enter a deep recession, particularly following the downgrade by Moody’s on March 27.

Remember we are facing desperate times and the nation, led by President Ramaphosa, has shown courage and determination in facing down the coronavirus.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

On a Lighter Note – Some Entertaining Tax Stories

UK Revenue officials recently released some entertaining excuses from taxpayers:

  • One taxpayer claimed their mother-in law was a witch and had cursed them.
  • Some said that hamsters and dogs had eaten the post.
  • A taxpayer was up a mountain and without internet access.
  • Some strange expense claims were received, such as pet food for a Shih Tzu ‘guard dog’ and a meals claim of 250 days of sausages and chips eaten at a cost of £4.50 per day.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

Budget 2020: Tips for Tito – Make Your Voice Count!

Every year the Minister of Finance asks us what we would like to see in the budget and a “Budget Tips” portal on the National Treasury website is open. This year he asks in particular for our views on “What can government do to achieve faster and more equitable economic growth?”

Your voice is important! We’ll show you how to be heard, with hyperlinks to the channels you can choose from.

To give you the idea, last year there were many differing tips ranging from the amusing and the serious to the overly optimistic….

On 26 February 2020 the Minister of Finance, Tito Mboweni, will be making his annual budget speech.

Traditionally, the Minister asks the public what they would like to see in the budget and a “Budget Tips” portal on the National Treasury website is open. Citizens are encouraged to submit their tips to the Minister either on that Portal or by Twitter @TreasuryRSA with the hashtag #TipsForMinFin and “#RSABudget2019” (presumably Treasury will update that hashtag to 2020). This year he asks in particular for your views on “What can government do to achieve faster and more equitable economic growth?”

If you have ideas, make your voice count! Last year there were many differing tips, from the amusing (give free Lotto tickets to regular electricity payers) and the serious (reduce corporate tax to 15% for companies with a turnover of less than R10 million to encourage job creation) to the overly optimistic (give a tax rebate to those who have upgraded security in their homes).

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

Directors: Be Careful, You Will Be Held More Accountable In 2020

Being a company director (or a senior manager) comes with onerous duties and risks which require constant management.

And 2020 is shaping up to be a year in which you will find yourself under increasing scrutiny, with the NPA now showing a distinct appetite for charging delinquent directors criminally, and with the ongoing risk of personal liability and class actions by trade unions and other stakeholders.

We discuss the standards to which you are held by the Companies Act and remind you of several specific and growing risk areas, not all of them immediately obvious but all of them important.

The past few years have seen scandals emerging in both the private and public sectors. Steinhoff, State Capture, Eskom, the Guptas and Bosasa, to name a few, have revealed how endemic corruption has become in South Africa.

The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) is now beginning to charge those who have been involved in these scandals. This has been greeted with relief by the public, who have become increasingly frustrated that perpetrators have appeared to have escaped from accountability for their actions.

Clearly, the directors and senior managers of these affected entities are being scrutinised and face potential prosecution.

Your obligations and your risks

The Companies Act places onerous obligations on directors and senior managers who are to perform their duties:

Having the necessary skills and experience to make informed, independent decisions,
Keeping themselves up to date on the plans and activities of the company,
Having sufficient data to make carefully considered and impartial recommendations to all issues raised at directors’ meetings, and
With no conflicts of interest. If a director has a conflict or potential conflict, then that director(s) shall make full disclosure of the conflict to fellow board members.

Failure to adhere to these standards opens directors to the possibility of being liable for any damages or losses incurred. In certain instances they face the potential to be held criminally liable and directors who transgress by failing to meet their obligations can also be disbarred as directors either permanently or on a short-term basis.

Additionally stakeholders, such as unions, may undertake class action against directors personally.

Other danger areas

Now that all directors are under increasing scrutiny, you also need to bear in mind issues such as your company causing environmental damage, trading in insolvent circumstances (for example SAA directors face potential litigation here), failing to ensure your business is protected against hackers, poor accounting policies and being party to the company suffering reputational damage which leads to a collapse in the share price (Tongaat directors risk exposure to this).

As a director, remember you are in the public’s and the NPA’s sights. Be extra careful that you execute your duties in line with the dictates of the Companies Act.

If in doubt, use your accountant as a sounding board and advisor.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

Small Businesses: How to Survive and Thrive

SMMEs (Small, Medium and Micro-Enterprises) play an integral role in our economy, and it is alarming therefore to read recent research showing that a massive 70% – 80% of South African small businesses fail within five years.

Why the high failure rate? What factors contribute to the success or failure of small businesses? Why are some entrepreneurs more successful than others, and what characteristics should you have (or develop) to maximise your own chances of success? What can government contribute?

Read on for the answers to these questions and more…

“Why do approximately 70% – 80% of small businesses fail within five years? Why are certain entrepreneurs more successful than others?” (Extract from UWC article below)

Recent research by the University of the Western Cape on the rate of failure of small businesses makes for interesting reading and provides insights that we all really need to take on board, particularly in these hard economic times.

SMMEs, their importance and their failure rates
Globally 60 to 70% of jobs are found in SMMEs (Small, Medium and Micro-Enterprises) but in South Africa this figure is only just over 28% despite more than 95% of businesses in South Africa being SMMEs.

South Africa has a higher failure rate of SMMEs than elsewhere in the world (70% – 80% of our small businesses fail within 5 years). In previously disadvantaged communities only 1% of businesses progress from employing less than 5 people to having staff of 10 or more.

6 factors that can make or break an SMME business
The research indicates that in terms of success factors, 40% can be attributed to the entrepreneur. The characteristics of this person are crucial and they need to show:

  1. Persistence, being proactive and being a self-starter,
  2. That they do not react to events but are continually planning (good planning is an important success indicator), innovating, having an ability to learn and apply this learning and having a culture of achievement.

The factors contributing to failure are ones we are aware of:

  1. Lack of skills – government and large corporates snap up almost all of South Africa’s limited skills,
  2. Difficulty in accessing finance – lending institutions require a track record before providing funding to businesses,
  3. Poor accounting records and limited information systems,
  4. Late payment by state institutions and large corporates (Kenya is considering passing legislation that compels paying SMMEs on time).

There are others too like corruption crowding out legitimate SMMEs and low bargaining power.

Entrepreneurs – what can you do?
Have a look at the 6 factors listed above. Maximise the positives, and do something about the problem areas. Remember, your accountant is there to help you succeed so don’t be shy to ask for advice.

What can government do?
Clearly the country is missing a sizeable opportunity to grow the economy and to reduce our 27% unemployment rate.

One way to get this going is through mentoring and training. Government programs are having a limited impact and there is space for business to also play its part. Why not interview some SMME owners and determine if they have the characteristics as shown above? Those that have the attributes can be successfully mentored to get good accounting records and systems, skills can be addressed as well as access to finance.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

Take Advantage of the Venture Capital Company Allowance While You Can

Here’s some good news in the form of a way to save tax (a lot of tax), make a good investment, and directly boost both our economy and our SMEs – all in one go.

That’s where the VCC (Venture Capital Company) Allowance comes in. We’ll have a look at the substantial savings you (or your trust or company) can achieve by using the allowance correctly; at how it works both initially and subsequently; at the need to beware of costs; and at how “finding a gem” could give you a (very) substantial after-tax return.

We share some practical examples to illustrate, and end off with a warning to act quickly – the allowance is planned to fall away at the end of June 2021.

“There are two systems of taxation in our country: one for the informed and one for the uninformed” (U.S. Judge Learned Hand)

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have limited access to capital markets. As SMEs are considered to be the cheapest and most cost-effective sector in creating jobs, the Revenue authorities sought to address this by creating an attractive allowance for Venture Capital Companies (VCC) in 2009.

The VCC allowance gave a massive boost to venture capital in South Africa, and also to SMEs who have received R6 billion in investment since 2009. Venture capital now accounts for 2% of GDP (in the USA this is 4%).

For you the taxpayer it offers an attractive way to reduce your tax as you are allowed to deduct R2.5 million from your taxable income if you invest in a VCC. This is in your own capacity or via a trust; if you use a company to make the investment, it can deduct R5 million.

How it works initially

Note: The examples below relate to an investment in your own personal name, and different tax rates and net returns will apply if you invest through a trust or company.

Assume you have R2.5 million in taxable income. It is 20 February, you have little more than a week before you will have to pay provisional tax and you want to reduce your tax liability and make a good investment.

You have researched the VCCs and decide to invest R2.5 million in a VCC which invests in solar power.

You have saved yourself R1.125 million in tax.
To avoid having this tax deduction of R1.125 million reversed, you will need to be invested with the VCC for five years.

How it works in subsequent years
The VCC onward invests the R2.5 million in a qualifying SME (the SMEs need to be registered with SARS) which then installs solar power in, say, a block of flats. Of interest here is that the SME also gets a 100% deduction on the R2.5 million.

If you cash in on the investment after 5 years, this will be the position:

In summary, you received a tax deduction of R1.125 million and 5 years later paid R450 000 in capital gains tax. Your investment of R2.5 million has been refunded to you. If you discount these cash flows, this equates to an after-tax return of just over 10% over five years which is pretty good as inflation is currently just below 4%, i.e. a real return of 6%. As a comparative the stock market delivered a return of just below 6% in the last decade.

This excludes any costs you may be charged.

Beware of costs
There are many VCCs out there and they charge varying fees, so be very careful of these costs as they come in many guises such as performance fees, administration costs, annual charge etc.

It is worth getting your accountant to check these costs.

Look for the gems
As we saw above, the qualifying SME (the entity that installs the solar power), gets a 100% upfront write-off of the investment (R2.5 million in this example for a tax saving of R700 000). Some creative VCCs have used this tax saving to return income to you the investor. Take the example of a residential complex where the qualifying company installs solar power in the complex and then charges the owners of the complex for the electricity they consume using solar power (this charge is at a substantial discount to Eskom’s rate). The qualifying company returns this charge to the VCC which then pays these amounts as dividends to you, the investor.

Thus, everybody scores:

  • Residents of the complex don’t pay for the installation of the solar power and get cheap electricity,
  • The qualifying company takes its profit out of the R2 500 000 investment and tax saving of R700 000,
  • The VCC makes money from charging you fees, and
  • You, the investor, get a return (after-tax and net of all costs) of over 20% over the 5 year period, which is excellent.

Don’t delay, the clock is ticking!
The only downside to this is that the allowances will fall away in June 2021. VCC companies are lobbying government to extend this program past June 2021, but even if they are unsuccessful, you have just under 18 months to take advantage of this scheme.

Of course this sort of investment isn’t for everyone; ask your accountant whether it might suit you.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

Junk Status Is Not The End – It Can Get A Lot Worse!

There is a perception that we will be scraping the very bottom of the barrel if Moody’s does indeed downgrade our debt to the dreaded Junk Status – that ‘There’s no way to go but up’, that ‘This is the beginning of our rehabilitation process’ and so on.

Regrettably that’s not so at all. If our economy continues to go the wrong way there could be much worse in store for us – have a look at our table of the various categories used by Moody’s in its “Investment Grade” and “Non-Investment Grade” rankings.

We discuss the implications, and our way forward.

It is now widely expected that sometime in the next year or so Moody’s will downgrade South Africa’s debt to junk status. Many see this as the beginning of the process to rehabilitate ourselves. True, initially we will go through a difficult period as ±R150 billion of our debt will be sold as many offshore institutional investors cannot hold junk bonds which leads to a fall in the currency, higher interest rates and lower economic growth. But then we knuckle down and begin to reform the economy and embark on the process of returning to investment grade.

However – things can get much worse

Source : Moody’s 

We are currently Baa3 with Moody’s and are on a negative watch with them which means they will put South Africa on Ba1 (i.e. junk status) if we don’t get economic growth on an upward path and rein in our rising debt.

As you can see, we can keep dropping to Ba2 and all the way down to C which means South Africa has defaulted on its debt obligations and there’s little prospect of recovery.

It can happen – just look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe – where optimistic assumptions are made on economic growth and government expenditure but in fact the country just raises taxes, incurs more debt, until you need to borrow money just to pay off debt that falls due. Each drop on the Rating Matrix raises the cost of borrowing and the downward spiral continues.

The ultimate problem with this scenario is that it eventually becomes irreversible, which is when default on debt becomes a distinct possibility.

The reality is that until genuine reforms are put in place, we will continue to descend along the Rating Matrix ladder.

What should we be doing? 

Paying off as much debt as possible is a good start. We should also carefully consider any future expenditure and analyse just how necessary it will be, particularly if it is in foreign currency. Some analysts recommend that we should become as self-sufficient as possible (e.g. boreholes, solar power).

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

How To Detect and Dodge Financial Scams

Financial scams have always been around but their scale in today’s world is truly amazing – estimates of annual losses in the USA alone reach $120 billion.

The good news is that there are positive steps you can take to protect yourself, and perhaps the first and most important of these is getting to grips with the different types of “con” and how they work.

First question we ask ourselves therefore is “What is a ‘quick con’, and what distinguishes it from a ‘long con’?” Then – the really important bit – we look at what types of people are most vulnerable to the con artists. Make sure you aren’t one of them!

“If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is” (wise old adage)

In the USA, $40 billion is lost every year to scammers. When you consider statistics suggesting that 65% of scam victims don’t report their losses (usually they are too embarrassed to admit they have been conned), as much as $120 billion could annually be skimmed from gullible people.

Scammers normally target people who are financially vulnerable (they have lost their jobs or their business has folded) or they take advantage of economic downturns where a large percentage of people experience financial hardship.

The quick con

Typically, it is difficult to fully get to grips with the scheme they sell you as the scheme’s workings are hard to fully understand. But the conmen tell you that the real issue is you will get astronomical returns and they will show you for example pictures of yachts cruising in the Mediterranean – messaging you “this is the life you will lead once you have made your quick fortune”.

Because they prey on the financially vulnerable, the conmen spin conspiracy theories – the reason you have fallen on hard times is the system has crushed you and this scheme bypasses all the financial regulation “nonsense” – and the like.

Conmen are also hard salesmen and they will pressurise you into making this “investment”.

The long con

You need to be really careful of these as you are up against some sophisticated operators. The main principle is to get assurance from people in your social circle that the scammer or the scheme is credible and achieves high returns (these people are wittingly or unwittingly part of the con). In addition, the scammers can point you to well-known financial experts who will vouch for the scheme (they typically are part of the con).

It is usually a Ponzi scheme which will operate successfully until no new funds come into the scheme. It then unravels very quickly, and the vast bulk of investors lose their investments.

Another type of scam is “pump and dump” where salesmen extol a little-known share, and this drives the price up. These salesmen make aggressive pitches to unsuspecting victims who get carried away by the upward momentum of the share. Once the share has gone way over its value, the conmen sell it short (the dump of the scheme) and the share price collapses.

Who is vulnerable to these scammers?

Strangely enough it is often well-to-do people (usually men) who are experiencing financial stress and are happy to take on risk. These people are well educated and financially literate.

The combination of factors that makes them gullible is (apart from being under financial stress):

  • Being put under pressure by the conmen (they need to get in “before it’s too late” and their friends “are making a killing”)
  • The scheme can be complex or opaque and so they rely on their intuition
  • Most of these people are decent and trusting, so they tend to believe the conmen and they don’t want to let the conmen down (no doubt the scammers are aware of this vulnerability)
  • Greed is a very powerful emotion and can lead to impulsive decisions which you will regret later.

Sir Isaac Newton was a great genius, but he lost all his money in the South Sea Bubble scam in the 1720’s.

So before you get caught up in a scam step back and think rationally. You should also analyse yourself and if you have any of the above traits, then be very careful of any investments that are “too good to be true”.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)

Your Tax Returns Are Due: Make Sure You Fill In Your Return Correctly

The last thing you need is to have the Taxman after you with his armoury of penalties and threats of criminal prosecution; and the likelihood of that happening if you put a foot wrong is higher than ever now with SARS missing its collection targets and pressured to up its game substantially.

So do not take your tax return deadlines – your next one is 31 January if you are a provisional taxpayer using eFiling – lightly!

We share some thoughts on “the need for speed” and on the nightmare scenario that awaits taxpayers who fail to tick the right tick box in the right part of the online form and are as a result deemed guilty of “material non-disclosure”.

“The hardest thing in the world to understand is the income tax” (Albert Einstein)

Provisional taxpayers using eFiling need to have completed and submitted their 2019 income tax return on or by 31 January.

Make sure you are prepared for this and don’t underestimate the time needed to put the return together. As a starting point you should have a good filing system which makes it easy to find documentation needed to both fill in the return and upload to SARS in terms of supporting schedules.

The income tax return form runs to more than thirty pages, so there is plenty of work to be done – don’t leave it to the last minute!

Your return must be complete

The onus is on you to satisfy SARS that your return is comprehensively and completely filled in. Thus, even if you supply SARS with all the documentation and explanations required, not ticking a box in the form that is applicable can lead to SARS deducing that you have not met your obligation of full disclosure.

This is important as if SARS deems there to be a material non-disclosure in your return (remembering that SARS tends to apply a very narrow interpretation of this) then the three year prescription period for your tax return is waived and SARS can go back and start raising queries on your 2010 return for example. This can put you onto a nightmare road, so take extra care.

We are all aware that SARS has been missing its collection targets in recent years and is under enormous pressure to maximise revenue from taxpayers.

Your accountant is there to assist you – this is a good time to make use of his or her services.

This article is a general information sheet and should not be used or relied upon as professional advice. No liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions nor for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information herein. Always contact your financial adviser for specific and detailed advice. Errors and omissions excepted (E&OE)